Seven years ago, a mere eight words to ignite the party's annual gathering demonstrating Labour was falling out of love with its then leader. Although not precisely stirring rhetoric, the phrase met with rapturous applause as delegates stood for spontaneous acclamation.
When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his addresses having such an effect. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". Context, however, is key.
During that darkly divisive time of 2018, departing from the prepared script in this way was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in working-class seats above the pro-European instincts within Labour. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a political gambler who would stand up for the party's base against a leader he later succeeded.
The Evolution in Position & Settled Issues
Since then, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts upon assuming leadership in 2020 was to declare the EU question had been settled by the previous year’s national vote. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” promises that forbade rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, even if survey data suggests a significant number have died or changed their minds.
Pressure Building on Europe
However, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a party leader. While EU relations is no longer the central crisis in UK politics, a lid which was tightly sealed since Brexit is starting to loosen again.
Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified the rhetoric about the devastation that leaving the EU has caused to the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was his primary goal and remains his sole political accomplishment.
Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, reportedly has left Britain with a national economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, towers over the micro-mitigation so far offered by the government. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset agreed with Brussels in 2024 provides gains measured in fractions of a percent.
Cabinet Divergence and Bolder Ideas
The chancellor is among those attempting to bypass entrenched Home Office resistance to an expansive version designed to boost growth program for young people allowing young people can move between Britain and Europe to study or work.
The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly about the “self-evident” benefits of joining a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, recently voted for an opposition proposal on joining one.
While the Europe minister, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, now present at all cabinet sessions, maintains the firm boundaries are still in place, there are ways these could be bypassed. One idea would be to declaring the commencement of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the next manifesto, with implementation only if Labour won a fresh mandate.
The Prime Minister's Fundamental Scepticism
However, Starmer has lately been damping it all down again cautioning that a return to an EU customs arrangement could undermine the commercial agreements with the US, which he regards as key accomplishments of his premiership.
Reportedly that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.
- First, he thinks a customs pact is now much harder because his ministers busily de-aligning from EU regulations in numerous sectors, including the environment.
- Secondly, the prohibitive cost set for the UK for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse in talks has led British officials that former EU partners are less interested in cutting special deals to the UK than in demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
- Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by Moscow, is seen by some influential figures in Number 10 as grounds for Britain to keep its distance from Europe.
A Bizarre Strategy and Geopolitical Calculations
This strange and concerning document claims Europe is threatened by cultural extinction because of immigration. It contains only one reference to Britain, found on a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in our politics to foster the growth of “patriotic” parties.
However, instead of concluding that this makes America an unreliable partner, the government is worried that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by risking fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Leadership Speculation and The Ghost from the Past
This situation returns us to 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not a pitch to become leader but merely an effort to keep open the possibility of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. In fact, in those days, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he currently seems to reject.
But it’s not been lost on Downing Street note that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would stand for the leadership, is part of a group of senior ministers signaling they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.
Aides to Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a contest to replace Starmer, maintain she refuses to comment on her stance regarding a customs pact because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Obvious Danger & A Prudent Reminder
The risk is clear. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to claim the territory where most of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.
It would be prudent for Starmer to remember the effect that a short phrase had on his career in 2018. Potential pathways for a big offer on EU relations that the prime minister ought to consider; he should prise them open himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.
